T.J. Watt's future with the Pittsburgh Steelers is uncertain as the team considers trade options.
The Steelers are favored to keep Watt, but the Arizona Cardinals loom as a potential trade partner, according to Kalshi's NFL trade market.
What's happening in Pittsburgh?
The Steelers' decision to extend Nick Herbig's contract to four years, $100 million, has raised questions about Watt's future with the team.
Watt, who tied the NFL single-season sack record in 2021, has declined steadily over the past two seasons, posting 19 sacks in 2023, 11.5 in 2024, and just seven in 2025.
Why the Cardinals make sense
The Arizona Cardinals have a weakness on the defensive line, totaling just 30 sacks last season, the third fewest in the NFL.
A fresh start with the Cardinals could be what Watt needs, and the team may be willing to pay the price, considering they signed J.J. Watt, T.J.'s brother, in the past.
The Cardinals' 2025 sack leader, Josh Sweat, has requested a trade, further highlighting the team's need for a strong defensive player like Watt.
What comes next?
Watt's 83% odds to stay in Pittsburgh offer a potential $1.90 profit at a $10 risk, according to Kalshi's market, which grades on December 1st, 2026.
The Steelers' consideration of a trade is likely due to Watt's guaranteed salaries of $32 million in both 2026 and 2027, as well as his age, turning 32 in October.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler noted that having three large contracts allocated to one position is a tough proposition for the Steelers, making a trade more likely.
The Steelers could be enticed to seek a similar haul to the Cleveland Browns' blockbuster trade, which netted them Jared Verse and first-, second-, and third-round picks.