T.J. Watt landed a three‑year, $123 million contract in 2025 that Bleacher Report analyst Brad Gagnon now calls the fifth‑worst deal in the league, pointing to a sharp drop in his sack totals from 19 in 2023 to just seven in 2025.

Why the contract draws criticism?

Gagnon notes the contract guarantees $108 million, with $32 million each year guaranteed for 2026 and 2027. The guarantee structure means Pittsburgh will shoulder $94 million in salary and dead‑cap charges even if Watt’s production continues to wane. The analyst argues that the steep decline—19 sacks in 2023, 11.5 in 2024, and seven in 2025—signals a downward trend that makes the hefty guarantees risky.

How does performance stack up?

Watt, now 31, posted seven sacks, 23 solo tackles, 10 tackles for loss and 19 QB hits in the 2025 season, appearing in 14 games. Those numbers sit far below his career average and the elite production that earned him eight Pro Bowls, four All‑Pro selections and the 2021 Defensive Player of the Year award. Over his career he has amassed 115 sacks, 354 solo tackles, 136 tackles for loss and 244 QB hits.

What does this mean for the Steelers?

The Steelers entered the 2026 season with a 0‑5 playoff record in the Watt era, a fact Gagnon highlights to argue the team’s postseason woes aren’t solved by a single star. Even with Aaron Rodgers slated for his final NFL year, the franchise’s lack of playoff success suggests that a massive contract alone won’t turn the tide.

What could happen after 2027?

If the Steelers decide to move on after the 2027 campaign, the dead‑cap hit from Watt’s deal will linger, potentially limiting flexibility for other roster moves. Gagnon warns that the team could be paying $94 million for just two seasons of on‑field work, a scenario that could hamper Pittsburgh’s ability to rebuild around younger talent.

Fan reaction and broader context

Steelers fans have taken to the team’s roundtable forums to debate the contract’s fairness, with many pointing to Watt’s historic impact versus his recent decline. While the contract remains one of the league’s most lucrative for a defensive player, the conversation now centers on whether the guaranteed money aligns with the on‑field value he can still deliver.

Bottom line: Brad Gagnon’s assessment puts a spotlight on the financial risk Pittsburgh assumed in 2025, framing Watt’s contract as a cautionary tale for teams betting on elite pass‑rushers whose production may not sustain its peak.